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Voters in Virginia’s Washington suburbs are heading to the polls Tuesday in a special election that could offer an early glimpse of the state’s high-stakes governor’s race this fall.
Republican Stewart Whitson, an Army combat veteran and former FBI agent, is challenging Democrat James Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County supervisor and longtime chief of staff to Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va. The Northern Virginia district typically votes overwhelmingly Democratic, giving Walkinshaw a clear edge.
But analysis of recent statewide elections, some insight into the upcoming governor’s race can be gained even if Whitson does not pull off what would be a historic upset for Republicans.
Virginia limits its governors to one consecutive term, and outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory was pegged not only to his focus on pressing issues like the economy and parental rights, but also his little-reported ability to proverbially run up the score in areas already friendly to Republicans.
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In Lee County — 400 miles to the other corner of the commonwealth from where Whitson and Walkinshaw face off Tuesday — the political landscape is exactly the opposite.
President Donald Trump lost Virginia in 2024 and 2020, while Youngkin upset former Democratic Gov. Terence McAuliffe.
In 2020, Trump garnered 84% of the vote in the county, anchored by Daniel Boone’s famed Cumberland Gap. Youngkin outdid Trump there and in nearly every other county in deep-red southwest Virginia, garnering 88% one year later.
In Wise County, the results were similar — 79% for Trump; 83% for Youngkin. Tazewell County, bordering West Virginia coal country and facing economic headwinds for some time, gave Trump 82% of its support and Youngkin 85%, a Reuters analysis also found.
Even in Washington County, one of the few suburban counties in the region, which surrounds the bistate Independent City of Bristol, Youngkin outperformed Trump by about five points.
Flipping back to the deep blue Fairfax and Arlington counties that are ground zero for Tuesday’s race, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger may similarly take comfort or concern from what happens in the margins of the special election’s results.
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Connolly’s 2024 and 2022 results were nearly identical, with the late Democrat defeating Navy helicopter pilot Michael Van Meter and Air Force veteran Jim Myles, respectively, by a margin of 67-33.
Results showing a better performance by Walkinshaw than his former boss’s recent contests may portend well for Spanberger, showing Democrats are more energized to support her than past candidates.
In the same way, Earle-Sears may take comfort in a better performance by Whitson, showing less excitement on the left in a district that is typically one of their most reliable in the state.
Earle-Sears told Fox News Digital she recognized the southwest as key to not only the election but governing Virginia as a whole, pledging to open a second governor’s office somewhere in the region, which is closer to at least three other state capitals than it is to Richmond.
“Everybody wants to be heard,” she said. “I made a promise that I would not be one of those kinds of politicians.”
Conversely, she said, people in areas like Connolly’s former district also have the right to hear a conservative message and have leaders from all sides responsive to them.
“I mean, I look like the kind of people who really do normally vote Democratic, and I’m not. And so I’m appealing to all voters,” she told Fox News Digital in a recent interview.
A Spanberger spokesperson also praised Walkinshaw in comments to Fox News Digital on Tuesday, calling him a “fierce advocate for Northern Virginia families.”
The candidate, a Fairfax County supervisor, is a “strong voice in standing up to the Trump administration’s devastating attacks on Virginia’s federal workers and economy,” the spokesperson added.
“As the White House continues to pursue disastrous economic policies that are causing costs to skyrocket and threatening Virginia jobs, Virginians deserve leaders who are laser-focused on putting the commonwealth first.”
A Walkinshaw win will give Spanberger a key regional ally if she is also successful in November, the spokesperson added.
Together, they hope to “lower costs for Virginia families, protect Virginia jobs, strengthen Virginia public schools and make Virginia a safer place to live,” she said.
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