The national homicide rate plunged to a historic low in 2025 and has continued to fall so far this year – except in eight major US cities.
The country saw the sharpest year-over-year decline in murders on record last year, with homicides dropping 20% from 2024 and likely reaching their lowest levels since 1900, according to a new analysis of local crime rates released by the Council on Criminal Justice.
The plunge in violence has only continued accelerating so far in 2026.
Homicides fell an average of 18% during the first half of the year compared to the first six months of 2025 across 21 of the 30 major cities surveyed by the Washington DC-based nonprofit.
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models and levels of federal enforcement activity,” CCJ president and CEO Adam Gelb said about the findings, according to CBS News.
While local policing and violence prevention programs have played key roles, “the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” Gelb told the outlet, and pointed to factors like technology advances allowing more people to work from home and a nationwide decline in alcohol abuse.
Lincoln, Neb., saw the steepest drop, recording zero homicides during the first six months of 2026 after reporting murders during the same period last year – marking a 100% decline.
It was followed by Rochester, New York, with a 76% drop, Little Rock, Arkansas, with a 61% decrease and Arlington, Texas, with a 60% dip.
Murders also fell 41% in Washington D.C., 18% in Los Angeles and 13% in Atlanta.
New York City had a strong showing as well.
While the CCJ analysis found homicides in the Big Apple fell 22% year over year, NYPD statistics released this month showed an even steeper decline, with 122 murders recorded through the end of June – down nearly 25% from 162 during the same period in 2025.
It also marked the fewest homicides Gotham has seen during the first six months of any year on record, according to department statistics.
Not every city shared in the decline, however.
Eight of the 30 cities surveyed saw homicides increase during the first half of 2026, including four that had double-digits hikes.
Norfolk, Va., saw the sharpest increase, with murders soaring 64% compared to the same period last year.
San Francisco followed with a 55% jump, while Dallas saw a 30% increase and Salt Lake City recorded a 20% rise.
Austin, Texas, posted a 9% year-over-year, the data shows, as well as a whopping 74% surge since the same period in 2019 – the largest increase over that period out of all 30 cities analyzed.
Homicides also rose 6% in Denver and up 3% in both Chicago and Charlotte, NC.
Several local law enforcement agencies, however, disputed the nonprofit’s findings.
The San Francisco Police Department said it has recorded 16 homicides so far this year, compared to 13 during the same period last year – a 23% increase, not the 55% rise reported in the analysis.
The department also noted that the Golden City ended 2025 with the lowest homicide rate in over 70 years, CBS News reported.
An Austin Police Department spokesperson likewise insisted that the city has not seen a significant increase in murders, while Norfolk Police Chief Mark Talbot pointed out that the city’s murder rate in 2025 was the lowest in four decades.
The CCJ said its analysis relied on data collected shortly after each reporting period ended, and noted that official figures later released by local police departments may differ.
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