Twin court rulings reshape House battlefield as Democrats fight uphill redistricting battle

As they push to flip the House and capture the chamber’s majority in this year’s midterm elections, Democrats are facing a steeper hill to climb, thanks to two blockbuster court rulings.

A Virginia Supreme Court decision last week that struck down the state’s voter-passed congressional redistricting ballot measure, coupled with a ruling a week earlier by the Supreme Court to slash a key protection in the 1965 Voting Rights Act, were major setbacks for Democrats.

The twin rulings gave President Donald Trump and Republicans a major boost in their high-stakes mid-decade redistricting battle with Democrats, giving the House GOP a bit of breathing room as it defends its razor-thin majority in the midterms. 

At stake is which party will control the House and the Senate during the final two years of Trump’s second term in the White House.

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The Virginia decision negated four more likely left-leaning congressional districts in that state. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court ruling, which determined that race should not dictate the redrawing of legislative district maps, spurred a slew of Republican-controlled southern states to quickly redraw their maps and create more right-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

“We have a battlefield, a map, that favors Republicans,” Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, noted Monday in a Fox News Channel interview as he pointed to the possibility of the GOP having a net gain of up to a dozen more right-tilting House districts as a result of redistricting initiated by Trump a year ago.

But some Republicans are raising concerns that the newly drawn GOP-controlled districts could put once safe red seats in play by diluting the percentage of Republican voters in those districts.

“You could, in essence, take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year,” veteran GOP strategist and longtime Fox News contributor Karl Rove said Sunday in an interview on the Fox News Channel.

House Democrats vow to keep fighting in the redistricting wars.

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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote in a letter Monday to fellow congressional Democrats, “Our effort to forcefully push back against the Republican redistricting scheme will not slow down. We are just getting started.”

But with the clock quickly ticking toward midterm filing deadlines and the conservative majority on the nation’s highest court unlikely to cooperate, the Democrats’ legal options seem limited at best.

Democrats, though, still enjoy campaign tailwinds due to a rough political landscape facing Republicans.

Republicans — as the party in power — were already up against traditional political headwinds that lead to a loss of congressional seats. Add to that the challenging climate fueled by persistent inflation, soaring gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.

Democrats have spotlighted affordability as they’ve won and overperformed in a slew of ballot box showdowns in the more than 15 months since Trump returned to the White House, including flipping legislative seats in red-leaning districts.

That messaging campaign will only intensify going forward, especially after this week’s economic reporting indicating inflation soaring to 3.8% as gas prices top a national average of $4.50 per gallon. Prices overall are outpacing wages for the first time in three years.

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Add to that Trump this week saying “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” while discussing what factors come into play as he tries to negotiate to end the war with Iran. The comments were an instant political gift to Democrats.

“Given the highly unfavorable political environment confronting House Republicans, the extremists will not meaningfully benefit from their scandalous gerrymandering scheme. Quite the opposite,” Jeffries argued in his letter to Democrats.

Despite the redistricting setbacks, top nonpartisan political handicappers still give the Democrats the upper hand in the midterm battle for the House majority as they point to the current political atmosphere.

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The Cook Report said it still believes Democrats are “favored to win control of the House due to the poor national environment for the GOP. But they are no longer overwhelming favorites.”

And Sabato’s Crystal Ball said it “still think(s) the Democrats are favored overall in the House, particularly if the environment does not improve for Republicans.”