President Trump is polling better in deep-blue New Jersey than outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, according to a new survey that highlights how economic hardship is impacting voters in the state’s tight gubernatorial race.
The Emerson College poll of likely Garden State voters showed Trump’s job approval rating at 41%, while Murphy managed just a 35% approval rating.
Trump, 79, also recorded a higher disapproval rating (51%) than Murphy (44%) with more than a fifth of those surveyed (21%) saying they were neutral or had no opinion of the term-limited governor.
The same poll of this year’s gubernatorial race showed Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in a dead heat with Repbulican former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli, with each getting 43% support among likely voters.
“Both President Trump and Governor Murphy are underwater among Jersey voters,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.
“Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump at the national level, and Ciattarelli is trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living at the state level.”
The poll showed likely New Jersey voters were almost evenly split over the type of relationship they wanted the next governor to have with Washington, as 49% said they wanted whoever succeeds Murphy to “work with” Trump and 51% said they wanted them to “stand up” to the 47th president.
More than half of likely voters (51%) said the economy was the most important issue in the Nov. 4 election, with only two other issues — threats to democracy (13%) and housing affordability (11%) — cracking double digits.
Approximately one-fifth (21%) of likely New Jersey voters said Murphy was most responsible for the state’s property tax rate — among the highest in the nation — and 22% blamed him for skyrocketing energy bills.
Only utility companies (30%) got a higher share of the blame among individual entities for those problems.
New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992. However, Trump only lost to Kamala Harris by 5.9 percentage points in 2024, the closest margin since Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush by 2.4 percentage points 32 years earlier.
The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll surveyed 935 likely New Jersey voters Sept. 22-23 with a crediblity interval of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.
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