The development odds of a tropical wave swirling in the Atlantic have risen once again, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now says a tropical depression is “likely” to form sometime this week or over the weekend as we inch closer to the peak of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
A tropical disturbance emerged off the western coast of Africa over the weekend and is currently located in the far eastern Atlantic, south of the Cabo Verde islands. It’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but it is moving into an area where environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development.
Right now, the NHC is giving the system a low chance of development over the next two days and a high chance of developing over the next week.
If it does continue to become better organized, it will be known as Tropical Depression Seven and then Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
The FOX Forecast Center said that the steering currents are weak across the tropical belt, so it may take about a week until the system is in the vicinity of the Caribbean islands.
Even though the atmospheric conditions are only moderately conducive for development between Africa and the Caribbean, it won’t take much for the system to spin up into at least a tropical depression.
In the long range, the FOX Forecast Center said that computer forecast models are split.
Some of them are showing a weak disturbance continuing to the west, and others predict the system will develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle or Hurricane Gabrielle and then make a turn to the north.
At this time, it appears as though a strong dip in the jet stream will be reinforced across the eastern U.S., which should continue to deflect any strong storms to the north.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said that the jet stream has much less steering effect on weaker systems.
So, if this disturbance doesn’t develop into much of a system, its future track is much less certain.
Be sure to download the free FOX Weather app to keep up with developments of this tropical disturbance.
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