The brewing “Super El Niño” will wreak havoc on global weather patterns this fall and winter could spike global food prices by 16% — and the effects could linger through 2028, according to a dire report.
Staples including rice, sugar, palm oil coffee and cocoa at risk are at risk of increases between 50% and 100%, according to a Goldman Sachs report published in June.
The cost increases in staples could ripple across the global economy, gradually raising food prices well into 2028 before supplies are replenished and prices stabilize, the Goldman Sachs analysis found.
This year’s El Nino — a phenomenon which occurs every few years when warmer than average Pacific Ocean waters scramble global weather patterns, causing droughts in some places and abnormal heat and precipitation in others — is expected to be particularly strong, amplifying fears of food disruptions.
South and southeast Asia — as well as parts of Africa, Mexico and South America are expected to experience much drier conditions than normal, potentially resulting in crippling drought.
There is even about a 70% chance the El Nino could become the most severe on record — with some experts nicknaming it “Godzilla” — increasing the likelihood its worst effects could take hold.
That means droughts could stunt crucial harvests, while regions not used to humidity and rainfall could be blighted by crop diseases for years to come.
And those effects are already being felt in some places, kicking off the feared chain-reaction which could soon be seen on grocery store shelves.
“El Niño has already begun to affect crops, driving a drier monsoon season in India, with some regions only experiencing 25% of their usual rainfall, and parts of central India only receiving 50%, which could affect supply for wheat, rice, and sugar cane,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
Even fishing industries have been to feel effects, with Peru’s $1.8 billion anchovy industry crippled this year by El Nino-driven warming waters, Bloomberg reported.
In the US and Europe, crucial corn harvests are already reeling from a summer of heat waves and drought which set back supply, Bloomberg reported.
El Ninos have a long history of disrupting food systems worldwide — in the 1870s, one left swaths of every continent reeling from a famine which killed millions.
And while global food systems are surely more advanced than they were 150 years ago, this years’ El Nino troubles are expected to be amplified by the ongoing war in Iran.
The conflict and its closures of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane have stunted global logistics, while rising oil prices driven by the war have left consumers across the world footing the bill.
Read the full article here
