Vice President JD Vance is the overwhelming choice to win the 2028 Republican presidential primary, according to a new poll, even with former contenders and allies of President Trump jockeying for position.
The May survey by J.L. Partners found 46% of registered voters are ready to back Vance as Trump’s successor, while no other named prospect got more than double-digit support.
Just 8% would back Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a second bid for the GOP nomination, while 7% supported current Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) each received 6% support.
Former South Carolina governor and Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley got 5% support in the poll.
A Yale Law graduate and former venture capitalist, Vance made a splash with his 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” and emerged as a staunch defender of Trump during a successful Senate run in 2022.
The president tapped Vance as his running mate as the Republican National Convention got underway in Milwaukee last July, touting how “Hillbilly Elegy” had “championed the hardworking men and women of our Country.”
Vance, 40, has been one of the Trump administration’s clearest and most effective communicators on key priorities like immigration enforcement, trade and social issues, informed by his Catholic faith.
Rubio, 53, has established himself as one of the president’s most trusted cabinet officials — while also serving in acting capacities overseeing the National Archives and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), as well as national security adviser.
Trump said in March that the future of his “Make America Great Again” movement looked “so strong” with such a full bench.
“You look at Marco, you look at JD Vance, who’s fantastic,” he told NBC News’ Kristin Welker during an interview on “Meet the Press.”
“You look at — I could name 10, 15, 20 people right now just sitting here. No, I think we have a tremendous party.”
Notably, Trump opted not to name Vance as his successor, but the vice president’s friendly rivalry with Rubio for the nod hasn’t dampened their relationship.
“He is probably my best friend in the administration,” Vance has told Fox News of Rubio. “We hang out and talk all the time.”
Ramaswamy served briefly as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during Trump’s transition — but departed as the president returned to the White House.
He said on the “Lex Fridman Podcast” last September that he wasn’t ruling out another presidential bid before announcing his run for the Ohio governor’s mansion in February.
JL Partners research manager Caroline Mulvaney said Vance “can expect to gain further support from voters who are currently supporting individuals unlikely to end up on the 2028 ticket, as well as at least some support from voters who are currently undecided.”
If Rubio did secure the 2028 nomination, 57% of Republican voters said they would support him, per the poll.
Among Democratic voters, former Vice President and failed 2024 nominee Kamala Harris has 30% support in a hypothetical primary, followed by ex-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with just 8% backing.
A pair of governors, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California, each have 7% support, followed by Bronx and Queens Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (6%).
Trump has publicly flirted with running for a third term by swapping places with Vance on the 2028 GOP ticket and then taking over after the Ohioan steps aside — but that move has been shot down by congressional Republicans and would possibly run afoul of the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment.
DeSantis and Haley both challenged Trump in the 2024 Republican primary — but the Florida governor bowed out after finishing a distant second in the Iowa caucuses.
Haley, who served as US envoy to the UN in Trump’s first term, suspended her campaign after losing more than a dozen states to the former president on Super Tuesday.
Neither DeSantis nor Haley has shown public interest in running for the White House again.
Cruz surprised Trump in the 2016 primary by winning Iowa and has expressed interest in making another run after sitting out the past two cycles.
When first son Donald Trump Jr. is added to the list of candidates, Vance retains his big lead with 40% support. But Trump Jr. receives 14% support, surging ahead of all other contenders.
JL Partners, which was one of the few pollsters to accurately predict Trump would win the 2024 popular vote, surveyed 975 registered voters May 13-14 for the poll, with a margin of error of 3.1%.
Its findings were first reported by the UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper.
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