The system that will eventually become the first nor’easter of the season is bringing rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic while strong high pressure builds to the north.
A flash flood threat due to heavy rain covers the region through Wednesday.
The coastal flood risk will increase throughout the workweek from North Carolina’s Outer Banks to New England as strong northeasterly winds develop across the offshore and coastal waters, producing powerful wind gusts.
Seas will rise rapidly, creating heavy surf and dangerous, battering waves along exposed beaches.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday night across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, meaning some coastal roads could be impassable.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, persistent onshore winds will remain locked in through multiple high-tide cycles, allowing waves to relentlessly pound the base of coastal dunes.
Significant beach erosion and dune scarping will develop from the Outer Banks through the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island as the surface low-pressure system forms.
The FOX Forecast Center said moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides, particularly in vulnerable back bays and low-lying coastal roadways.
Coastal storm emerges Thursday into Friday
The storm will emerge off the coast and begin to strengthen sometime Thursday or Friday.
The Outer Banks are forecast to see major coastal flooding, extreme surf and heavy, continuous rain. Some areas could experience wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with offshore waves reaching 15 to 18 feet.
The region will also see widespread rainfall, although widespread flash flooding is not currently forecast.
However, pounding waves across multiple high-tide cycles could lead to coastal flooding and severe beach erosion.
Ocean overwash onto coastal roadways, including Highway 12, is expected, potentially creating scenes similar to major coastal events seen last year.
By Thursday and Friday, the surface low-pressure system will strengthen off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, causing onshore winds to intensify.
Water will become trapped in back bays, creating consecutive high-tide cycles and preventing water from fully draining during low tide.
Eventually, elevated tidal flooding could spread across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, extending into southern New England.
The FOX Forecast Center said multiple days of continuous pounding waves will severely impact beaches. Dune washouts and damage to oceanfront boardwalks and coastal infrastructure will become increasingly likely across Mid-Atlantic and Long Island beaches.
Compounding tidal flooding and heavy wave action will also begin to impact the southern half of North Carolina.
Wind gusts along immediate coastal areas could reach 40 to 50 mph, pushing ocean water inland.
Nor’easter takes aim at New England this weekend
By Saturday and Sunday, the low-pressure center is expected to track north toward the I-95 corridor and New England, solidifying the nor’easter.
As the strengthening system tracks into or near New England, the strongest pressure gradient will impact the region, including Boston.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said there are a few scenarios that could unfold as the storm moves north.
One scenario is if the storm shifts closer to Boston. This could turn the storm into a major weather event, featuring 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, heavy rainfall, major storm surge, and significant disruptions to Boston Harbor and the Massachusetts coastline.
On the other hand, if the storm shifts closer to New Jersey or Long Island, the strongest impacts could shift farther south, potentially putting New York City on the fringe of the storm.
Finally, if the area of low pressure remains offshore, coastal New England could still experience rough surf, elevated tides and breezy conditions, while the heaviest rain and strongest winds remain displaced to the south and east over open water.
The FOX Forecast Center said this scenario is appearing less likely.
What is certain, according to the FOX Forecast Center, is that wind gusts could reach over 60 mph as the peak of the storm shifts into southern New England, Massachusetts Bay and the Gulf of Maine.
Some areas could see waves reaching 15 to 18 feet along the coast.
Peak onshore winds, high astronomical tides, and trapped coastal water will create the greatest risk for significant coastal inundation and structural flooding along east-facing shores, including Boston Harbor, Cape Cod, and the north and south shores.
Officials said dangerous seas, extreme rip currents, and massive swells will make ocean waters extremely dangerous.
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