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“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Like every golf junkie out there, I’m pretty excited about the PGA Championship.
And between the latest with LIV and some golfers still trying to get back to their true form after injuries, this week’s tournament should be interesting and fun to watch.
Here’s where I’m putting my money.
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Scottie Scheffler
The defending champion has a great chance to repeat, as he comes in off three straight runner-up finishes. He’s so good that only one player has finished in front of him the last three tourneys. In his six PGA appearances, he’s got five top 10 finishes. In his last 13 majors, only twice has he been out of the top 10. There really is no need to roll off any other stat superlatives. If he’s not there on Sunday, something has gone very wrong.
PICK: Scottie Scheffler (-175) Top 10 including ties
PICK: Scottie Scheffler (+480) to win
Bryson DeChambeau
There’s so much drama surrounding LIV right now, and I can’t help but wonder if that was weighing on his mind at the Masters when he missed the cut. Now that everything is pretty much out in the open, I’d expect Bryson to play better this week, especially given he’s done so well on PGA courses with three straight top-four finishes. Among the course comps this week for Aronimink are Pinehurst No. 2 and Winged Foot — the two courses at which Bryson won his two U.S. Opens. If you listen to Rory McIlroy, this PGA very much has a “hit it as far as you can and then figure it out feel.” That’s exactly how DeChambeau won at Winged Foot. I’ll take him against Aberg who, in his six non-Masters majors, has missed the cut four times.
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (+220) Top 10 including ties
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (+2100) to win
PICK: Bryson DeChambeau (+110) vs. Ludvig Åberg
Matt Fitzpatrick
Quail Hollow wasn’t great for him last week, but the last time Fitzpatrick finished outside the top 20 at Bay Hill, he ripped off finishes of 2-1-18-1-1 in his next five starts. He’s become one of the best and most consistent players on tour and again should post another solid finish. Unlike DeChambeau — who I think is truly in a better place in his mind with post-LIV plans — I don’t get the same feeling with Jon Rahm. He’s been so well-spoken the last couple of weeks in light of everything and I get the sense he realizes he torpedoed his image somewhat, as well as his career, with the move to LIV. I don’t know what to expect from him this week, but at a nice plus-price, I’m willing to take Fitz in this head-to-head.
PICK: Matt Fitzpatrick (-115) Top 20 including ties
PICK: Matt Fitzpatrick (+150) vs. Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
JT has struggled the last few years in part to various injuries. Since winning the 2022 PGA, he’s got one top-30 finish, and he’s missed the cut in seven of his last 13 majors. I wonder if this type of course — where he won’t be the longest hitter out there and he’s still not the most accurate either — might put him at a disadvantage here. I know he played well at Quail Hollow, but I have my doubts this week. I love Brooks Koepka in this head-to-head as Koepka has played pretty well since his return to the PGA Tour.
PICK: Justin Thomas (+198) to miss cut
PICK: Brooks Koepka (+100) vs. Justin Thomas
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa didn’t play well at Doral at all and couldn’t give it a go last week at Quail Hollow as his back appears to still be an issue. What he did at the Masters was amazing, but I’d be surprised if he had a repeat success story this weekend. I’ll also back Brooks here in head-to-head vs. Morikawa.
PICK: Collin Morikawa (+210) to miss cut
PICK: Brooks Koepka (-110) vs. Collin Morikawa
Justin Rose
There’s been so much chatter of Rose winning the 2013 U.S. Open down the road at Merion this week, which is fine, but the equipment change is a concern. Since flirting with a win at Augusta, he’s finished outside the top 40 at both Doral and Quail Hollow. He would be a good contrarian fade this week.
PICK: Justin Rose (+198) to miss cut
Extra Wagers
While it won’t be the FedEx Cup setup which led to Keegan Bradley posting a winning score of 20-under, the prevailing thought from players and caddies I’ve heard from is somewhere between 13 and 15 under will win this week. And with just a little rain midweek and then not a lot of wind, that score projection checks out.
PICK: Winning Score (+102) u267.5
Hovland’s form has fallen from 2023-24 and his third-place finish at the U.S. Open last year, but this is more a fade of Ludvig Åberg than anything. Hovland has played PGA courses well, finishing second, third and 28th over the last three years. He posted a top-20 finish at the Masters, so maybe things are coming into form again.
PICK: Viktor Hovland (+470) Top Scandinavian
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