Republican Bruce Blakeman has caught up within single digits of Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead in the New York gubernatorial race with six weeks left until the Nov. 3 election, a new poll of likely voters found.
Blakeman is closer to pulling off an upset of Hochul than GOP challenger Lee Zeldin was during the same time period in 2022, a new Siena University survey reveals.
Hochul leads Blakeman by 9 points — 50% to 41%, according to the poll.
“At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54%-37%, before going on to win by six points,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg
Last month, Hochul led Blakeman 49% to 39%, so Blakeman picked up a point but still has significant ground to make up.
Hochul is far from beloved, even though voters favor her on some key issues.
Only 48% of voters view her favorably and 48% unfavorably.
Her job approval rating is also under 50% — 48% gave a thumbs up and 47 disapproved.
Blakeman, meanwhile, has his own challenge — nearly one-third of voters don’t know him or have no opinion with the election just 41 days away. Thirfty-five percent of respondents view him favorably and 34% unfavorably.
Only 38% of respondents said New York State is on the right track, while 49% said it’s going in the wrong direction as Hochul seeks re-election to a second, four-year term, the survey found.
But only 28% of voters said the US as a whole is on the right track, while a staggering 66% said it’s going in the wrong direction during President Trump’s mid-term.
“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits — well, nine points — in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one,” Greenberg said.
Voters favor Hochul on a few key issues.
For example, 49% of respondents said Hochul would do a better job of making prices more affordable compared to 40% for Blakeman.
Similarly, 49% of voters would choose Hochul to make New Yorkers safer, while 43% chose Blakeman.
Elsewhere, 47% of voters said Hochul would better address undocumented immigrants to 43% for Blakeman.
In the Empire State battle, Republican President Trump is more of a political liability for Blakeman than democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is for Hochul, according to the poll.
About half of likely voters think Trump endorsing Blakeman is a negative for Blakeman’s campaign, including 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 24% of Republicans.
Conversely, half of voters think Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign, including 72% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 22% of Republicans.
Hochul is spending millions of dollars on TV ads tying Blakeman to Trump, while Blakeman and the GOP are running ads suggesting Hochul is in Mamdani’s palm.
It’s Hochul’s race to lose, voters said.
While only half of likely voters support Hochul, two-thirds say they think she will win, including 37% of Republicans.
As expected, the incumbent has a huge lead in heavily Democratic New York City, where she is backed by 61% of voters to Blakeman’s 27%.
Voters are split in the downstate suburbs, where Hochul leads 48% to 46% as well as upstate, where Blakeman is ahead 47% to 44%.
Blakeman must break into Hochul’s support in the Big Apple or pull away from her upstate or in the suburbs, which includes his Long Island turf, where he serves as Nassau County executive.
Earlier surveys conducted by Republican-leaning pollsters during the summer claimed the race is even closer.
A Blakeman campaign survey released earlier this month claimed he trailed Hochul by just 4 points — 50% to 46%.
Another poll conducted for the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” Super PAC last month also had the Republican trailing his rival by just 4 points — 47% to 43%.
And a survey by the firm co/efficient for the right-leaning, pro-Blakeman “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers” showed Hochul leading Blakeman by just 6 points — 47% to 41% — among likely voters.
This Siena University Poll was conducted September 11-17 among 1,144 likely voters questioned via live mobile and landline phone interviews and text. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
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