WASHINGTON — Nationwide murder rates are on course to plummet for the third year in a row, with one prominent analyst saying that 2025 could see the lowest number of per capita killings on record.
“Since President Trump took office, murder rates have plummeted across the entire United States,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement on Tuesday.
“American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law.”
According to the FBI, 2014 saw the lowest murder rate dating back to 1960 — with 4.46 killings per 100,000 Americans.
In 2023, the most recent year for which FBI statistics are available, the murder rate dropped to 5.75 per 100,000 from a recent high of 6.83 per 100,000 in 2020, a year that saw the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as widespread racial unrest.
In 2024, according to the Real-Time Crime Index — a database maintained by AH Datalytics which compiles reports from more than 400 local agencies — the homicide rate dipped again, to 4.97 per 100,000, below the official FBI rate in both 2018 (5.15) and 2019 (5.17).
In the first three months of this year, the real time index shows, the number of murders has dropped by a further 21.6% from the same period in 2024.
“[I]t’s fairly clear that a decline in the direction we’re currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded,” independent analyst Jeff Asher wrote in a May 12 Substack post.
Trump took office vowing to crack down on crime — especially crime committed by illegal migrants — and celebrate law enforcement officials for putting wrongdoers behind bars.
In April, officials lined the White House lawn with 100 mugshots of deported illegal aliens, along with lists of the crimes they were accused of committing.
“Good policy fosters good outcomes,” FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson said Tuesday. “Under this administration’s leadership, our federal law enforcement teams are receiving the tools and support they need to crush violent crime and keep the American people safe, and that’s exactly what they’re doing. We have much more to do, but let good cops be cops, and the results will follow.”
The nationwide decline is being reflected in some of America’s largest cities.
In New York, year-to-date murder rates have dropped 28.2%. The local stats show the city’s 112 murders in the first five months of this year reflect a 34.1% drop from the same point in 2023, a 41.4% dip from 2010 — and an eye-popping 85.7% drop from this point in 1993.
Philadelphia, which consistently ranks as among the deadliest cities in America, reported a 14.7% dip in year-to-date murder numbers.
The pattern is repeating in Chicago (23% decline year-to-date), Baltimore (24%) and New Orleans (25%).
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