Trump not on ballot, but president front and center in 2025 elections

His name isn’t on the ballot, but President Donald Trump is topic number one on the campaign trail this summer in the top 2025 election battles.

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the party’s gubernatorial nominee in New Jersey, is repeatedly tying her Republican rival to Trump and the president’s sweeping and controversial moves during his nearly eight months back in the White House.

“As Trump has inflicted all this damage on our country, Republican politicians like Jack Ciattarelli have cheered him on every step of the way,” Sherrill emphasized in a fundraising email to supporters.

Meanwhile, Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker who came close to defeating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy four years ago, is showcasing the president’s support.

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“We’re going to look to deploy the president, the White House, in every way that we can, Ciattarelli said last week at an event at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

It’s not just New Jersey.

Statewide and top municipal contests from coast to coast this year are being partially framed as referendums on Trump and his agenda.

And Democrats and Republicans see the showdown in New Jersey, as well as in Virginia, the only other state that holds gubernatorial and legislative elections the year after a presidential contest, as key barometers ahead of next year’s midterms, when the GOP will be defending its House and Senate majorities.

Add to that list the vote this November over congressional redistricting in California, the three state Supreme Court contests in battleground Pennsylvania, and New York City’s high-profile mayoral election.

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“In today’s hyper-partisan environment, every election is examined and (over)analyzed for its implications for national parties,” veteran political scientist Wayne Lesperance told Fox News.

Lesperance, president of New England College, said that this November’s election results “will serve as fodder for pundits to make conclusions about President Trump and the GOP or the prospects for Democrats to regain control of Congress.”

Democrats, who are aiming to exit the political wilderness following last year’s election setbacks, when they lost control of the White House and Senate and failed to win back the House majority, are highlighting their success so far this year in special elections.

Pointing to a special election victory last week in red state Iowa, where the Democrats flipped a GOP-held state Senate seat, Democratic National Committee (DNC) chair Ken Martin touted, “We have overperformed in every single election that’s been on the ballot since Donald Trump was inaugurated.”

“There’s wind at our back,” Martin said.

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But special elections are far from perfect barometers of things to come.

“It defies logic to assume that the results of a state Senate race in one state provide insight into national public opinion about the president or the party of opposition,” Lesperance said.

And Republicans point to the multitude of problems facing the Democratic Party.

“Sadly for the DNC, the truth is that Democrats’ approval rating is at a 30-year low as the party has hemorrhaged more than 2 million voters over the past four years,” Republican National Committee communications director Zach Parkinson told Fox News.

Here’s a closer look at 2025’s top elections.

New Jersey

Republicans believe they have momentum on their side as they try to win their first gubernatorial election in blue-leaning New Jersey in a dozen years.

They point to Trump’s showing in the Garden State last November, when the president improved from a 16-point loss in the state in the 2020 election to a six-point deficit in 2024.

Ciattarelli, who is making his third straight bid for New Jersey governor, cruised to the GOP nomination earlier this year thanks in part to Trump’s endorsement.

And in his primary victory speech, Ciattarelli argued that Sherrill would try to nationalize the race by linking him to Trump.

“Mark my words, while we focus on these key New Jersey issues, my Democratic opponent will do everything in her power to change the subject. Trust me, if this campaign were a drinking game and you took a shot every time Mikie Sherrill says Trump, you’re going to be drunk off your a– every day… between now and Nov. 4,” Cittarelli said.

Sherrill, a former officer in the U.S. Navy and a former federal prosecutor before first winning election to Congress in 2018, is the polling frontrunner in the general election showdown.

Murphy, who was first elected governor in 2017, is term-limited.

Virginia

Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is facing off against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Youngkin is prevented from running for re-election, as Virginia’s constitution does not allow sitting governors to seek consecutive terms.

The 61-year-old Earle-Sears was born in the Caribbean island nation of Jamaica and immigrated to the U.S. at the age of 6. She served in the Marines and is a former state lawmaker who made history four years ago when she won election as Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor. 

Spanberger, age 46, was born in New Jersey. The former intelligence officer in the CIA won election to Congress in 2018 before securing re-election in 2020 and 2022.

The winner in November will make history as Virginia’s first female governor in the commonwealth’s four-century-long history. Additionally, if Earle-Sears comes out on top, she will become the nation’s first Black woman to win election as governor.

Trump and his polices are a major issue in the state’s gubernatorial showdown.

The president’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been on a mission this year to chop government spending and cut the federal workforce.

The moves by DOGE, which was initially steered by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, have been felt acutely in suburban Washington’s heavily populated northern Virginia, with its large federal workforce.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the nonpartisan political handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said, “Trump matters a lot for the general election.”

New York City

The mayoral election in the nation’s most populous city always grabs outsized attention, especially this year as New York City may elect its first Muslim and first millennial mayor.

Democratic socialist 33-year-old state lawmaker Zohran Mamdani’s victory in June’s Democratic Party mayoral primary sent political shock waves across the country. And he’s come under attack from Republicans and from his rivals on the ballot over his far-left proposals.

Mamdani is the clear frontrunner in the heavily blue city, as he faces off against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who came in a distant second in the primary and is now running as an independent candidate. Cuomo is aiming for a political comeback after resigning as governor four years ago amid multiple scandals.

Also on the ballot are embattled Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat who is running as an independent, and two-time Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.

Trump, a native New Yorker, has continuously been in the spotlight in the race for months.

California Prop 50

Voters in heavily blue California will vote in November on whether to temporarily set aside their popular nonpartisan redistricting commission and allow the Democrat-dominated legislature to determine congressional redistricting for the next three election cycles.

The vote will be the culmination of an effort by Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats to create up to five left-leaning congressional seats in the Golden State, to counter the new maps that conservative Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law last week, which will create up to five more right-leaning U.S. House districts in the red state of Texas.

The redistricting in Texas, which came after Trump’s urging, is part of a broader effort by the GOP across the country to pad their razor-thin House majority to keep control of the chamber in the 2026 midterms, when the party in power traditionally faces political headwinds and loses seats.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court

Democrats currently hold a 5-2 majority on Pennsylvania’s highest court. 

But three Democrat-leaning justices on the state Supreme Court, following the completion of their 10-year terms, are running to keep their seats in “Yes” or “No” retention elections.

The election could upend the court’s composition for the next decade, heavily influence whether Democrats or Republicans have an advantage in the state’s congressional delegation and legislature, and impact crucial cases including voting rights and reproductive rights.

While state Supreme Court elections typically don’t grab much national attention, contests where the balance of a court in a key battleground state is up for grabs have attracted tons of outside money.

The state Supreme Court showdown this spring in Wisconsin, where the 4-3 liberal majority was maintained, drew nearly $100 million in outside money as both parties poured resources into the election.