IRS data from the third week of the tax filing season—the week ending February 14, 2025—continues to suggest that taxpayers are not excited about filing this tax season. Filing statistics are down in every category—from filing to processing to tax refunds.
Early filing data reflects a continued downturn in tax returns received compared to the prior year. The dip is 4.9% compared to last year (and 10% down from the same filing period in 2023).
The IRS still appears unmoved, claiming on its website that “[h]istorically, filing season numbers even out as more tax returns come in” and noting that “the IRS expects the tax return filing numbers will level out in future weeks as the April filing deadline approaches.”
I remain unconvinced that the slowdown is just a seasonal tick. Why? The IRS is currently without a permanent Commissioner (and the acting Commissioner has not posted a message to taxpayers). A Trump Administration hiring freeze at the tax agency has begun, with existing job offers being rescinded. And, after President Trump suggested he might fire some current IRS workers or move those authorized to carry guns to the border for immigration enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to deputize IRS agents to help with efforts to crack down on immigration.
And, this week, over 6,000 IRS employees were fired, causing some taxpayers to query if the IRS was even open for business (it is). In response to the news, one user posted on social media, “And this is why I haven’t filed my taxes yet.”
In addition, taxpayers have voiced concerns about the privacy their financial data after reports suggested that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had been given access to sensitive financial data in the Treasury Department. (Last week, Justice Department lawyers agreed to a proposed order that would temporarily curb that access, a move that follows a lawsuit and protests challenging DOGE’s actions.)
This week, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) raised eyebrows when it requested access to sensitive taxpayer data at the IRS. According to various reports, DOGE is seeking access to the Integrated Data Retrieval System (IDRS). You can think of the IDRS as a master file, which includes tax returns and other taxpayer information, including bank records.
The changes are making taxpayers nervous—and that might explain why filing numbers in 2025 remain sluggish. The IRS received 33,040,000 individual income tax returns in 2025, compared to 34,743,000 in 2024. That’s, as noted, a drop of about 4.9%.
(About 59% of those returns were self-prepared, which is not unusual to see early in the tax season.)
Most of those returns were e-filed. In 2025, the IRS has received 32,400,000 e-filed returns, compared to 34,071,000 in 2024. That’s a drop of 4.9%.
The data shows that the IRS has processed 32,820,000 individual income tax returns as of February 14, 2025, compared to 34,546,000 by February 16, 2024. That’s a decrease of 5.0%.
Web visits to IRS.gov were also sharply down, dropping an incredible 46.3% compared to 2024. There have been 124,289,000 visits to the website as of February 14, 2025, compared to 231,436,000 visits by February 16, 2024.
The downturn in web visits may reflect the fact that the website has not been regularly updated—there have been only six press releases posted since the season opened, and only one update since last week. I expect that trend to continue for a few reasons, including that media and communications personnel were included in the most recent round of firings and sources have indicated that communications will not be shared until they have been cleared at the top (Treasury). The latter is a marked change from previous practices.
Average refunds are also down—this is a change from the past two weeks. The IRS has issued 13,657,000 tax refunds so far in 2025 compared to 20,883,000 in 2024, a drop of 34.6%.
The average tax refund is also down: $2,169 per taxpayer as of February 14, 2025, compared to $3,207 as of February 16, 2024, a decrease of 32.4%. The average refund issued by direct deposit also lower in 2025: $2,252 (as compared to $3,265 in 2024).
The IRS issued a bit of a disclaimer on refund data, stating that, “Please note that the refund numbers for the week ending Feb. 16, 2024, include the PATH Act refunds (EITC/ACTC); while the refund numbers for the week ending Feb. 14, 2025, do not. Due to reporting cutoff dates, the 2025 PATH Act refunds should be reflected in next week’s filing season statistics.”
What they’re referring to is that the law requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the ACTC until mid-February. The rule applies to the entire refund, even the portion not associated with the EITC and ACTC. That means if you qualify for the refundable credit, you’ll have to wait until the IRS can release it—those checks should begin to go out next week. As a result, if you’re an early EITC/ACTC filer, you should begin to see tax refunds by March 3—some taxpayers could see their refunds a few days earlier. That estimate is based on processing times, allowing for Presidents’ Day, which is a federal and bank holiday.
Notably, in 2020 (the last filing season with a week ending on February 14), tax refund numbers also took a dip, but overall filing numbers were nearly flush from the previous week, dipping just -0.3%.
It continues to be an unpredictable season. Check back as the season progresses as Forbes continues to track those IRS numbers.
Read the full article here
