Democratic socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is surging, cutting ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s frontrunner status in the Democratic primary to just a single digit lead, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
The latest PIX 11/ Emerson College poll has the Queens state Assemblyman holding his own with Cuomo for 10 rounds of ranked-choice voting before being eliminated with a nine-point spread, 54.4% to 45.6%.
But with less than a month to the June 24 Democratic mayoral primary, only a small fraction of voters appear to be up for grabs, with 3.5% of voters still undecided, according to the survey conducted May 23 to 26.
“With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
In the ranked-choice simulation, the first for the pollster, the former governor continued his strong first-round showing at 35% of the vote and Mamdani coming in second at 23%.
City Comptroller Brad Lander was third with 11%, followed by former Comptroller Scott Stringer with 9%, Council Speaker Adrienne Adams with 8% and Brooklyn state Sen. Zellnor Myrie with 5%.
Round after round, the poll showed Mamdani continuing to gain ground by picking up more of the second-choice votes from Democrats after their first-choice candidates were eliminated.
Under the system, voters rank their top five candidates. A winner is only selected after getting more than 50% of the vote, with the lowest-ranked contender dropping off each round. Those votes then fall to the next-ranked candidate who has yet to be eliminated.
Playing nice on the left has appeared to greatly benefit Mamdani, 33, who has formed a loose alliance with other candidates in a strategic bid to block the thrice-elected 67-year-old gov from making a political comeback.
The young Queens pol even urged supporters to donate funds to rival Adrienne Adams’ mayoral campaign to help her qualify for matching public funds, after he maxed out his own coffers.
He’s also part of the left-wing Working Families Party‘s preferred but unranked slate that also includes Adams — no relation to Mayor Eric Adams — Lander and Myrie.
In PIX11/Emerson’s prior poll in late March, Cuomo led 38% to 10% over Mamdani, after the assemblyman only garnered 1% support just weeks prior.
In ranked-choice surveys by other pollsters, Cuomo defeated Mamdani by double digits — including in the Mamdani campaign’s own poll released Tuesday.
“Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points,” said Kimball.
The primary election is June 24, with nine days of early voting beginning June 14.
Cuomo also cleans up in the general election in November — albeit far off.
If elected as the Democratic nominee, Cuomo wins with 44% support, according to the poll.
Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa comes in second with 13%, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams as an independent ballot candidate in third with 10%, and another independent candidate, Jim Walden, carves off 7%.
With Mamdani as the Democratic nominee, 35% would support him in the election, to 16% for Sliwa, 15% Adams, and 6% for Walden.
About one-quarter of general election voters are undecided.
Cuomo has managed to maintain nearly the same approval rating since jumping in the race, with this latest poll showing 41% of New Yorkers view him favorably while 47% view him unfavorably.
Adams, though, has failed to gain much ground with New Yorkers now that his historic federal criminal case was killed — only managing to muster 19% favorability while 69% view him unfavorably.
President Trump has managed to outperform Adams with 27% favorability, but his unfavorable rating matches the mayor at 69%.
On other matters, half of New York City voters think mass deportations of undocumented immigrants hurt the city, while 30% think they are a positive development and 20% are unsure.
Nearly half of city voters — 49% — say their family’s finances are worse off now than a year ago, 35% say they are about the same, and 16% say they are better off.
Meanwhile, 61% of voters support making it easier for first responders to forcibly hospitalize mentally ill people who are determined unable to meet their basic needs, while 13% are opposed and 26% are unsure.
As for the Middle East, 46% do not think it is very important or somewhat important that the next mayor has a pro-Israel stance, compared to 33% who believe it is important. The remaining 21% of respondents have no opinion.
In the other citywide races, Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine is out to a dominating lead over Brooklyn Councilman Justin Brannan, 51 to 23.
Incumbent Public Advocate Jumaane Williams also runs away with the nomination, according to this poll, leading state Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar 56 to 15.
Five hundred Democrats were sampled for the ranked choice voting simulation after excluding undecided voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Overall, 1,000 registered voters were interviewed overall for questions unrelated to the Democratic primary via phone, text survey and an online panel. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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