Democratic socialist nominee Zohran Mamdani is the front-runner to win the general election for Big Apple mayor but could be vulnerable if anti-Mamdani voters coalesce around one opposition candidate, a new poll released Thursday claims.
The American Pulse survey shows Mamdani with the support of 35% of general election voters, ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo with 29%, Republican Curtis Sliwa with 16% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 14% and another independent candidate, Jim Walden, at 1%.
“Mamdani has an early lead and a clear message, but deeper scrutiny may erode enthusiasm among general election voters,” said American Pulse pollster Dustin Olson.
He said there are “warning signs flashing all around” the 33-year Queens assemblyman.
“It’s possible some voters already have buyer’s remorse. When they hear about government-run grocery stores or Mamdani’s continued refusals to denounce ‘Globalize the Intifada,’ which many folks — including me — consider to be an antisemitic slogan, support softens,” the right-leaning pollster said.
Still, nearly every analyst had wrongly predicted Cuomo would defeat Mamdani in the ranked-choice Democratic primary — with the Emerson College Poll’s last survey among the exceptions. So, general election polling should be taken with a grain of salt.
Mamdani defeated Cuomo 56% to 44% in the ranked-choice primary.
But Mamdani now faces a broader swath of voters who may not be on board with his leftist proposals that include imposing $9 billion in new taxes on the wealthy and corporations and shifting the property tax burden to “richer and whiter” neighborhoods to pay for free buses and child care, city-run grocery stores and housing expansion.
His opposition to Israel — including support of the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement against the Jewish state — also could be more of an issue than in the Democratic primary.
But at least for now, Mamdani is blessed by a multi-candidate field that splits the opposition vote — making it easier for him to win the general election.
Cuomo, 67, is facing pressure not to run an active campaign in the general election under the “Fight & Deliver” ballot line. Civil rights activist Al Sharpton has urged him to step aside, and unions that backed him in the primary are now supporting Mamdani as the Democratic nominee, while others weigh backing Adams, 64.
But the Cuomo camp is touting the latest poll, indicating he’s the strongest candidate against Mamdani in the general election, and incumbent Adams is the one who should drop out of the race.
Pollster Olson said Adams is cooked.
“The common thread through multiple questions is that Mayor Adams’ core support is somewhere between 10% and 13%, so he may not know it yet, but his path is closed,” he explained.
Adams is seeking re-election as an Independent on the EndAntiSemitism and Safe&Affordable ballot lines.
Cuomo hasn’t made a final decision on whether he will run a campaign. His name will be on the ballot regardless.
Mamdani’s lead still holds after voters are told some of his proposals and controversial positions.
“Mamdani support holds steady at 34.4%, virtually unchanged, and Cuomo sits at 29.5%. Cuomo barely budges the numbers even after people hear about Mamdani’s government-run grocery stores and what looks like Mamdani’s antisemitism,” Olson said.
The survey claimed that Mamdani’s support is fragile.
Voters were asked whether they would vote for Mamdani or “anyone else. Voters were split 48% choosing Mamdani and 46% said anyone else.
When told of his positions, Mamdani’s support drops to 44% while 50% said anyone else.
But the scandal-scarred Adams and Cuomo’s baggage may turn voters off even more.
Sixty-two percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Adams, while 52% viewed Cuomo negatively. Mamdani had more voters view him favorably — 47% to 42% unfavorable.
“Can Mamdani weather the scrutiny of his agenda? Will the rest of the field’s baggage start taking the headlines again? The answers to those questions will determine the race,” Olson said.
American Pulse Research & Polling surveyed 568 likely voters from June 28 to July 1 via live telephone interviews, text, robo calls and an online panel. It has a margin of error: +/- 4.0%. It was paid for by its subscribers and not any campaign.
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