A plurality of American voters are supportive of President Trump’s economic approach — and nearly one-quarter of Democratic voters are inclined to support House GOP candidates in the 2026 midterms as a result of his trade-focused policies, a new megapoll found.
At least 22% of Democrats said Trump’s tax-and-tariff agenda makes them more likely to back Republicans in House races next year, a massive Stack Data Strategy multilevel regression and post-stratification poll first reported by Politico Playbook concluded.
A firm 18% of white Democrats also said Trump’s handling of the economy boosts their chances of backing Republicans, compared to 24% of Hispanic Democrats, 27% of black Democrats, and 30% of Asian Democrats, agreeing with that.
Democrats had hemorrhaged minority voters, particularly male ones in the 2024 election cycle and the megapoll indicates there could be additional opportunities for Republicans on that front.
Additionally, while only 35% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 41% who disapprove — a dramatic turnaround from his high standing during his first term and 2024 campaign — a plurality of voters believe tumult could be worth it.
A considerable 42% of voters argued that economic turbulence could be “worth it in the long-run” compared to 37% who disagreed, per the poll.
Overall, voters surveyed for the poll narrowly favored Democrats over Republicans 44.9% to 43.3%, with 10.2% unsure.
If the election unfolds that way, Democrats will flip just seven House seats and have a 222 to 212 majority in the lower chamber. Currently, Republicans have a 220 to 212 GOP majority.
That is not a surprising result. The party in power has lost House seats in every midterm election since 1938, with two exceptions: 1998 and 2002. Republicans are still favored to retain the Senate.
The poll also found that Trump’s strongest issue was immigration, with a 49% approval to 33% disapproval. Even a quarter of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 backed his immigration policy.
The megapoll was taken before protests and riots against US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) broke out across Los Angeles.
Additionally, the massive survey found that key provisions of Trump’s marquee legislative agenda, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are popular with voters.
On net, respondents backed extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 45% to 20%, and supported boosting border security funding 53% to 21%.
Democrats have pummeled Republicans over Medicaid reforms in the legislative bundle, but 42% supported the main change of imposing work requirements, compared to 32% who opposed that.
Those findings were published after a brutal Fox News poll that dropped on Wednesday showed voters opposing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 59% to 38%.
Senate Republicans are currently making modifications to the mammoth bill and are hoping to get it passed by the Fourth of July.
GOP leaders have repeatedly predicted that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could boost their electoral prospects once they get it over the finish line.
The Stack Data Strategy survey was taken from May 23 to June 13 and sampled 8,008. The Post has contacted the pollster about the margin of error.
In late 2023, the firm released a massive survey that found Trump was on pace to beat former President Joe Biden in the Electoral College.
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