The last two years of the Biden Administration have been blissful for stock investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% and the tech stock–heavy Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled. Bitcoin is up fourfold. But history teaches us that bull markets don’t last forever, and when they fall it can be ruinous to nest eggs and 401(k)s. There are plenty of potential dangers, from interminable wars to intractable budget deficits. And stocks may already be overpriced: The S&P 500’s PE ratio is currently more than double the historical median.
Inflation concerns and a sense of economic vulnerability were largely responsible for Donald Trump’s election, with voters seeming to believe that he would be better for their wallets than Kamala Harris. But the president-elect’s campaign promises—including tax cuts and tariffs on trade that would, per a budget watchdog, add $7.8 trillion to the national debt over 10 years—might well have the opposite effect. The tariffs alone (60% on China; 10% on other countries) would almost certainly hinder growth and spark inflation.
So it might be time to buckle up and hang on to the gains you have. Our post-election investment guide offers smart advice for fixed-income investors who worry about inflation and clever options strategies for those lucky enough to have owned stocks like Nvidia. And for those who want to preserve their wealth across generations, we have a story on family offices, which are now no longer the exclusive preserve of the superrich.
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