WASHINGTON — Florida Republican state Sen. Randy Fine easily won the first of two crucial special elections for the US House in the Sunshine State Tuesday, temporarily bolstering the GOP’s razor-thin majority.
Fine was projected to defeat Democrat Josh Weil, an Orlando teacher, and succeed former Rep. Mike Waltz, who represented Florida’s 6th District for six years before resigning to become President Trump’s national security adviser.
The race had been expected to be a shoo-in for Republicans in a district Trump won by 30 percentage points in the November presidential election.
However, an internal survey by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio that leaked last week found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points, 44%-41%.
Other polls had Fine up but within the margin of error, prompting top Republicans such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to concede Fine would likely underperform Trump, with DeSantis calling the expected result a “reflection of the candidate that’s running in that race.”
When the race was called, with 73% of the expected vote reporting, Fine led Weil by 8.1 percentage points.
Fine also lagged badly behind Weil in the fundraising race.
Weil raked in about $9.5 million by mid-March and had $1.3 million cash on hand, per campaign finance disclosures.
By contrast, Fine had only $93,000 cash on hand and was forced to donate $600,000 of his own money to his campaign to help make up for the gap.
The president himself implored Floridians to get out and vote in a post on Truth Social Tuesday morning, saying that Fine “has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” and “WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”
The angst over Fine’s fate and the possibility of losing a House seat once thought unlosable helped lead the Trump administration to pull Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be US ambassador to the United Nations last week.
Since at least 2009, off-year elections have been seen by the party out of power as an opportunity to rally disaffected voters ahead of even-year congressional elections.
“Special elections usually attract a much smaller electorate and voters that are very focused on politics,” Boris Heersink, associate professor of political science at Fordham University, explained to The Post.
“Increasingly, those voters have shifted towards the Democrats, making low-turnout elections potentially better for them than general elections: after all, Democrats also were overperforming in 2023 special elections and Trump still won in 2024.”
Republicans were expected to have an easier time replacing former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) in the Panhandle-based 1st District, where GOP state CFO Jimmy Patronis faced Democrat Gay Valimont.
Gaetz resigned from Congress last year after Trump tapped him to be US attorney general before withdrawing from contention amid a House ethics investigation over allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use.
The former congressman is now a host on One America News Network and has flirted with running for governor in 2026.
“Every day, our lead has grown over my Democratic opponent, even though she’s outspent us five to one,” Patronis told The Post Monday, adding that the levels of spending far exceeded the typical contributions in the district.
“This is money from all over the country that the Democrats have poured into this district, and I think this is the most expensive race in the history of northwest Florida.”
Patronis explained that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) reached out to him and has “big expectations,” but insisted that he’s “not taking anything for granted.”
In his current office, Patronis oversees the Sunshine State’s treasurer, comptroller, insurance commissioner and fire marshal operations.
“My credibility, throughout my public service, it’s been a real big deal to me and, you know, getting out there and having an opportunity to take my kids and my wife and be a part of this transformation of America and riding the ship and, you know, getting access to the Trump administration and then wanting to be a part of it,” Patronis added.
“I’m really humbled, very fortunate.”
Two more special elections are set to take place later this year to replace Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), both of whom died in March.
Democrats are expected to hold both those seats, making the projected makeup 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats when all members are present.
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