House Speaker Mike Johnson promised Thursday that New York Republicans will “defy the odds again” and win even more seats in 2024 than they did in the 2022 midterms, when they helped to secure the party’s majority in the lower chamber.
In an exclusive sit-down with The Post, Johnson (R-La.) predicted Republicans will achieve unified government after the Nov. 5 election, thanks in large part to strong candidates running in tough Empire State swing districts.
“We recruited workhorses — and not show ponies — this cycle,” the House speaker boasted, saying he was “very bullish” about growing his majority by “flipping a seat or two” in New York.
“They know their people, they know what’s on their hearts, and we’re providing answers to all the great challenges that are articulated by the people here,” he said. “Everybody’s fed up about the cost of living and the crime rate, the open border and the weakness on the world stage.”
Public polling has consistently shown that the economy and immigration rank highest among voters’ concerns ahead of the general election.
Johnson told The Post that the toughest NY GOP re-election fights will be for seats held by incumbent Reps. Marc Molinaro in the upstate 19th District, Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th District on Long Island’s Nassau County and Brandon Williams in the Syracuse and Utica-based 22nd District.
“I think all of our incumbents will wind up with a win,” he explained. “I mean, you look at a guy like [Rep.] Mike Lawler [in NY-17] — he’s in a district that Biden won by 10 or 12 [percentage points] … last time. But he’s done an extraordinary campaign. They have thrown everything at him but the kitchen sink, and he still emerges because he’s smart and capable.”
Vice President Kamala Harris has a 13.5% lead on former President Donald Trump in New York, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent surveys.
But the House GOP leader remains confident that Republican challengers like Alison Esposito in the 18th District could add even more seats.
“She’s surging at the right time, she’s very compelling and resonated with the people,” he said. “She speaks the language, and they love her.”
An Emerson College/Pix 11/Hill survey earlier this month found Esposito just five points behind Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan in the 18th(48%-43%), with nearly 10% of the electorate still undecided.
Lawler, meanwhile, was narrowly beating his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, by one percentage point, 45%-44%.
Internal polls also show D’Esposito up as much as six percentage points (48%-42%) against Democrat and ex-Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, while Molinaro was ahead of his Democratic competitor Josh Riley (47%-38%) in July before the race tightened in the following months.
“Lee Zeldin had great coattails when he ran for governor [in 2022] and he was a large part of the reason … that we did so well,” added Johnson, claiming former President Donald Trump will help even more down-ballot candidates finish ahead of their Democratic opponents.
“History has proven that the road to the Speaker’s gavel and the House Majority always runs right through New York,” House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) declared at the New York Republican State Committee’s annual awards gala back in April “and mark my words, [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries, every New York Republican incumbent is coming back and we will pick up at least one more seat. New Yorkers will hold the line.”
Republicans won 11 of New York’s 26 House seats two years ago, but their number was reduced by one following the expulsion of Rep. George Santos in December 2023 and the subsequent special election victory by Democrat Tom Suozzi.
Johnson will mark the anniversary of his accession to the speakership Oct. 25 with a slim cushion of 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats — one of the narrowest majorities in the 235-year history of Congress.
On Thursday, Johnson recalled that one of his predecessors as speaker, Newt Gingrich had told him that he was governing during the toughest legislative period since the Civil War.
“The job’s almost impossible,” Johnson said Gingrich told him. “He had 16 years to prepare a legislative agenda, leadership team, fundraising. I had [a] one[-vote majority] for four or five months.”
“Right now, we have an embarrassment of riches, we have three,” Johnson joked of the current Republican majority, “but if we can get that to eight or 10 or 12 — I’m excited about growing the majority.”
“I intend to be speaker again,” he added, “and we’ll be working in tandem to implement a very well-designed playbook, because we’ve got to deliver for the American people. So I’m bullish on November.”
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