One in five new cars sold in the EU this year will have zero tailpipe emissions. How did we get here?
A surge in the uptake of electric cars will save Europe 20 million tonnes of CO2 this year, according to new analysis from campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E).
That’s equivalent to the emissions pumped out by eight coal power plants and represents one positive trend within a notoriously difficult to decarbonise sector.
Transport is the only sector still producing more emissions than it did in 1990, lagging behind industry, electricity generation, and buildings, as it generates around a third of EU pollution. But T&E’s latest State of European Transport report reveals that emissions are finally falling.
“The EU’s green policies are beginning to bite. Thanks to the switch to EVs, we are starting to see a structural decline in transport emissions,” says William Todts, executive director at T&E.
Europe’s transport sector belched out 1.05 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2024 – down from 1.1 billion tonnes in 2019. That is a 5 per cent drop. The uptake of electric vehicles is largely responsible for this, having risen steeply over the last few years, replacing petrol and diesel powered alternatives.
“Now is not the time to roll back green measures,” adds Todts. “For the continent’s prosperity and security, now is the time to double down.”
Good green policies have seen EVs soar
Cars are the biggest transport polluters with a total of 450 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions per year and representing 13 per cent of EU total emissions.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are already three times cleaner than petrol cars and this will only improve as the electricity that powers them becomes greener, T&E explains.
The campaign group predicts that there’ll be 8.8 million BEVs on the roads this year, meaning one in five new cars sold in the EU will have zero tailpipe emissions.
The report credits this progress in large part to the EU’s CO₂ standards for cars, which have provided predictability for carmakers ahead of the 2025 target. Manufacturers have made investments to pivot production lines towards EVs while batteries become ever cheaper, which means that 2025 will see more affordable and mass-market models.
Does the EU have enough charging points for all its EVs?
A lack of charging points is still seen by many as an obstacle to buying an electric car, but T&E analysis shows that the infrastructure has actually been keeping pace with BEV uptake.
Under the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), each country has annual targets based on a ratio of total charging power output and the number of electric cars on the road. The bloc’s 2025 target was exceeded back in 2022, and there are now more than 1,100 charge points.
Along highways, 11 countries have reached the EU target of providing charging points every 60km. The AFIR is also spurring on the installation of EV charging infrastructure in cities, with Oslo, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Brussels and Ljubljana leading the pack on this front.
Vehicle production emissions ‘the next frontier’ says T&E
Electric cars aren’t the silver bullet to Europe’s pervasive transport problem, however.
For one thing, their production phase is still highly polluting. With around 10 million new vehicles sold per year, electric vehicle production (excluding the battery) is responsible for around 50 Mt CO₂ emissions.
Batteries, aluminium and steel are the three emission hotspots to target, according to T&E, which is urging greater use of green and recycled steel.
Aviation emissions are undermining efforts to decarbonise transport
Despite progress on EU roads, increasing pollution in our skies is undermining efforts to cut transport emissions, the researchers warn.
Europe’s airlines emitted 143 Mt of CO₂ last year, up nearly 10 per cent compared to 2023.
Emissions from Europe’s shipping activity remain stubbornly high at 195 Mt CO2e, the report finds, as both sectors are heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
But with shipping now included in the EU’s carbon market (ETS), both sectors combined will have raised €5 billion in revenues in 2024, according to T&E estimates.
It says these funds can be used to bridge the price gap between green e-fuels and traditional fossil fuels – a vital development from both a climate action and energy security point of view.
“Europe is slowly releasing itself from its dependence on oil, but we are still spending hundreds of billions on imports from overseas powers,” says Todts.
Fossil fuel imports remain the main energy source for transport, with 96 per cent of Europe’s crude oil and 90 per cent of its natural gas coming from abroad as of 2023. Often from autocratic regimes, and at vast expense.
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