WASHINGTON — Democrats and Republicans are still at loggerheads as DC careens toward a potential government shutdown later this week.
Democratic leaders in Congress have opposed a stopgap measure funding the government at current levels until Nov. 21, in part due to its failure to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies that will expire at the end of 2025.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have held firm that debates over the subsidies should be postponed, with lawmakers in the lower chamber passing the temporary funding solution before recessing for the rest of September.
“The Obamacare subsidies is a policy debate that has to be determined by the end of the year, Dec. 30, not right now while we’re simply trying to keep the government open,” Johnson told CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.
But the bill failed to clear the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster Sept. 19, and Johnson sent House lawmakers back to their districts for the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah.
That means Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will either have to cave and go with the House GOP’s so-called “clean” continuing resolution to fund the government — or join House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) in supporting a federal shutdown.
If no agreement is reached, the government’s lights will go dark after 11:59 p.m. Tuesday. Here’s what would happen:
Who gets paid? What stays open during a shutdown?
Members of Congress, political appointees in the Trump administration and all essential congressional and federal employees — including postal carriers, air traffic controllers and others — would all be paid to work during a shutdown.
Federal benefits — including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, will continue to be distributed, along with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program providing food stamps.
US military service members, non-essential federal employees and White House staff would only be paid retroactively once the shutdown is over.
Often, partial government shutdowns result in furloughs for federal workers who aren’t in essential positions and a return to full-time work when the shutdown ends.
What about the threat of permanent layoffs?
Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought has signaled that thousands of those non-essential employees could be laid off permanently if a shutdown happens.
In a memo to all agencies last week, Vought asked officials to draft Reduction in Force (RIF) plans for all programs not statutorily required in a shutdown.
“It has never been more important for the Administration to be prepared for a shutdown if the Democrats choose to pursue one,” Vought wrote in the memo.
“Once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their RIFs as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions,” the OMB director also said.
Those staff reductions would take effect after 60 days, at which point the shutdown would almost certainly have been over.
Vought’s plan has put Democrats like Schumer and Jeffries in a particularly tough spot, given their past statements about the effects of shutdowns on government workers.
“Over a million active duty military members won’t get their pay. A shutdown would degrade troop readiness and devastate our southern borders, something our friends on the other side who claim to care about border security conveniently ignore,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
“Small businesses would lose access to capital. Home buyers would be unable to secure loans. Our supply chains would be imperiled and costs to American families would go up and up.”
How likely is a shutdown?
Schumer caught flak from the left flank of his party for voting to avert a government shutdown in March, putting more pressure on him this time around not to fold.
The Senate Democratic leader said at the time that “allowing Trump to take even much more power is a far worse option.”
But he has not ruled out the possibility of caving again this time.
“We hope it doesn’t come to that,” Schumer also said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “The American people are on our side by almost 2 to 1.”
“The bottom line is we must get a better bill than what they had the last time.”
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