IRS data from the fifth week of the tax filing season—the week ending February 28, 2025—continues to suggest that taxpayers are not excited about filing this tax season. Numbers for tax filing and processing of tax returns remain low, a mark that has not changed throughout the filing season.
Early filing data reflects a continued downturn in tax returns received compared to the prior year. The dip is 3.0% compared to last year (and almost 10% down from the same filing period in 2023).
As I noted last week, the IRS has apparently given up on excuses. After weeks of offering an explanation for the lower numbers, explaining that the agency “expects the tax return filing numbers will level out in future weeks as the April filing deadline approaches,” the IRS didn’t offer any such platitudes this week (or the last).
The IRS is currently operating on its third Commissioner in as many months—Melanie Krause is now the acting IRS Commissioner following the resignation of former Commissioner Danny Werfel and retirement of acting Commissioner Douglas O’Donnell. A Trump Administration hiring freeze at the tax agency has begun, with existing job offers being rescinded. Thousands of workers have been eliminated from their positions, with additional cuts—reportedly up to half of the agency’s full-time staff—on the way. And after Elon Musk announced that he had “deleted” Direct File, some taxpayers assumed that the free filing option was no longer operational (it is). And taxpayers have voiced concerns about the privacy their financial data after reports surfaced that Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) requested access to sensitive taxpayer data at the IRS.
The changes have resulted in confusion for some taxpayers, and apathy for others. (I’ve had more than one conversation with taxpayers this week suggesting that they believe there will be no consequences for not filing or not paying.)
Still, the changes are making taxpayers nervous—and that might explain why filing numbers in 2025 remain sluggish. The IRS received 52,402,000 individual income tax returns in 2025, compared to 54,030,000 in 2024. That’s a drop of nearly two million returns, representing about 3.0 % fewer returns and part of a bigger pattern—there has not been a single week in the filing season to date with an uptick.
Most of those returns were e-filed. In 2025, the IRS has received 51,209,000 e-filed returns, compared to 52,795,000 in 2024. That’s a drop of 3.0%.
About 54% of those e-filed returns were self-prepared, compared to 46% of e-filed returns received from tax professionals. In January, the IRS noted that it expected more than half of all tax returns to be filed this year with the help of a tax professional.
The data shows that the IRS has processed 51,819,000 individual income tax returns as of February 28, 2025, compared to 53,231,000 by March 1, 2024. That’s a decrease of 2.7%.
Web visits to IRS.gov were also sharply down, dropping a significant 43.2% compared to 2024. There have been 191,685,000 visits to the website as of February 28, 2025, compared to 337,328,000 visits by March 1, 2024.
The downturn in web visits may reflect the fact that the website has not been regularly updated—there have been only a dozen or so press releases posted since the season opened.
I expect that taxpayers will continue to avoid the website for a few reasons, including that media and communications personnel were included in the most recent round of firings and sources have confirmed that communications, including press releases, will not be shared with the public until they have been cleared at the top (Treasury)—that’s a marked change from previous practices. Additionally, taxpayers and tax professionals have expressed concerns about the security of their data, including making online queries on their tax accounts, with some suggesting that they may pause visits until they receive confirmation that their data is safe.
The data points in the tax season filing statistics that are seeing upticks are related to tax refunds.
The total number of tax refunds edged up to 36,902,000 in 2025, compared to 36,288,000 in the same period last year.
The average tax refund is also up: $3,382 per taxpayer as of February 28, 2025, compared to $3,182 as of March 1, 2024, a boost of 6.3%. The average refund issued by direct deposit increased to $3,436 in 2025 compared to $3,244 for the same time period last year.
The number of tax refunds—and the amount of those refunds—often edge up as the season progresses. That’s because the law requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the ACTC until mid-February. The rule applies to the entire refund, even the portion not associated with the EITC and ACTC. That means if you qualify for the refundable credit, you’ll have to wait until the IRS can release it. As a result, early EITC/ACTC filer typically begin to see tax refunds around March 3, though some taxpayers could see their refunds a few days earlier.
The IRS expects more than 140 million individual tax returns for tax year 2024 to be filed ahead of the Tuesday, April 15 federal deadline—we have just over a month to go. Check back for more details as the season rolls on.
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