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It must be something about October and two-year intervals in Congress.
Congress was paralyzed for more than three weeks without a leader two years ago this October as the House unceremoniously ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
And Congress is paralyzed again this October – unable to find the votes to re-open the government.
“There’s nothing for us to negotiate,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “We did the job to keep the government open. And now it’s on the Senate Democrats.”
OMINOUS RED AND ORANGE SKIES HAD CAPITOL HILL TAKE NOTICE AS SHUTDOWN LOOMED
But Democrats say that’s the problem. There haven’t been negotiations. Save for a brief White House meeting last week between President Trump and the top four bipartisan, bicameral Congressional leaders a day before the shutdown.
“The Majority Leader in the Senate, John Thune, R-S.D., talks about, ‘we’ll have conversations.’ We need more than conversations. We need a real negotiation,” said Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., on Fox.
So there are no talks. And the sides are seemingly talking past each other.
So, they’ve turned to handicapping.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., gamed out that the shutdown would run another week.
“It won’t end until everybody in the Senate takes their ego out back and shoots it. And then it’ll end,” predicted Kennedy.
It always is, and always will be about the math.
Senate Republicans can conjure up the votes of 55 senators to break a filibuster on the House-passed bill to fund the government. But they need 60 yeas. And Republicans are determined to stick to their playbook.
“I can tell you there’s more than five Democrats in the Senate who know that (Senate Minority Leader) Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. has led them into a box canyon with this Schumer shutdown,” said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., on Fox. “But the consequences will start to pile up.”
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: SENATE REVOTES TODAY ON ENDING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt wouldn’t directly answer a question about what would trigger federal firings. But Leavitt made clear that jobs hung in the balance.
“We don’t want to see people laid off. But unfortunately, if this shutdown continues, layoffs are going to be an unfortunate consequence of that,” said Leavitt.
Democrats excoriated the Trump Administration for hinting it would cut programs and jobs in agencies important to Democrats.
“Americans really hate bullies. And this kind of bullying from the White House is going to backlash because they understand that an authoritarian president uses grants to New York for infrastructure, laying off workers, deliberately inflicting pain,” predicted Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. “Don’t inflict unnecessary pain and then boast about it.”
Some Republicans practically reveled in the White House approach.
“All’s fair in love and war. I think that there’s a price to pay for the Democrats shutting this down,” said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. “These will be part of the consequences.”
But one Democrat argued that the Trump administration’s gambit would also undercut Republicans and voters who supported the president. Even in blue states.
“There’s a lot of folks in Vermont, there’s lot of folk in Illinois who voted for President Trump. So this sort of collective punishment,” said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., on Fox. “I think it’s a really bad idea.”
But the president is coy about when the shutdown could trigger federal layoffs.
“It could,” said the president. “At some point it will.”
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy noted that his department saw “a slight uptick” in aviation safety employees who were calling out sick during the shutdown – since they weren’t being paid.
“They’re thinking about how am I going to get a paycheck? How do I make a car payment,” said Duffy.
WHITE HOUSE ESCALATES SHUTDOWN CONSEQUENCES AS DEMOCRATS SHOW NO SIGNS OF BUDGING: ‘KAMIKAZE ATTACK’
But if you squint, you can see a few signs of bipartisanship.
Johnson is discussing Obamacare subsidies with one prominent Democrat.
“I had I think a fruitful discussion, with Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., about two days ago, a day or so ago,” said Johnson on efforts to address looming Obamacare premium spikes. “Whatever the conference committee comes up with, I will put on the floor. I’m ready to go.”
But Schumer is skeptical about the Speaker’s promises.
“Delay has always been Speaker Johnson’s MO. Speaker Johnson has survived by kicking the can down the road,” said Schumer. “When Johnson says later, they know he means never.”
Tension is building as the shutdown barrels into its second week as lawmakers spin in circles.
“I realize that my Democrat colleagues are facing pressure from members of their far left base. But they’re playing a losing game here,” said Thune.
But each side is now engaged in a game of parliamentary chicken. Republicans won’t budge from their demand that Senate Democrats approve their funding plan. And Democrats won’t relent from their insistence that the sides shore up Obamacare subsidies.
“I’m not going to vote to reopen the government until I see a way that we can do that,” said Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.
Even some Republicans worry about Obamacare price spikes.
“There are some folks in what is the new part of the Republican Party, which is blue-collar workers,” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., on Fox Business. “We have to be careful how we do this. We just shouldn’t cut it. We should make sure we use a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.”
SHUTDOWN IGNITES STRATEGIST DEBATE: WILL TRUMP AND GOP PAY THE POLITICAL PRICE IN 2026?
But even if bipartisan senators were to forge a deal, the plan may slam into a brick wall in the House.
“Republicans have spent most of their careers being against Obamacare. Why would they expand it and add a subsidy on top of a subsidy?” asked House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla.
A debate is now raging over which side will cave. Or which party faces political consequences.
Naturally, Republicans believe Democrats will pay a price.
“Their radical base just wants to see them up here fighting Donald Trump, not over any particular issues,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.
But Democrats don’t see a political downside.
“Are you concerned in any way about the political ramifications that voters might blame your side down the road?” yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
“The American people are crystal clear on who shut down the government. Crystal clear,” replied Jeffries.
However, some lawmakers doubt that voters care about who “shut down the government.”
“My constituents don’t care about the finger pointing. They just want us to govern,” said Rep. Madeleine Dean, D-Penn.
As the impasse deepens, the Senate shifted from parliamentary posturing to ecumenical intercession.
“On this third day of the government shutdown, inspire them to work for your glory in all they think, say, and sow,” prayed Senate Chaplain Barry Black during his invocation of the Senate last week.
HERE’S WHAT TRUMP WANTS TO DO TO RESHAPE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DURING THE SHUTDOWN
And then there are the sideshows. The White House sent out a meme portraying Budget Director Russ Vought as the Grim Reaper. And the president trolled Jeffries with an AI-generated social media video, casting Jeffries in a sombrero and a mustache with mariachi music playing in the background.
At the same time, Republicans warned about grave shutdown consequences.
“Real pain is being endured by real people,” said Johnson.
But in the next breath, the Speaker defended the president making light of circumstances, describing the trolling as “entertainment.”
“That’s what President Trump does. And people are having fun with this,” said Johnson.
I didn’t let that go.
“On one hand, you say this is very serious. That people have jobs on the line. On the other hand, you say, ‘oh, this is just fun and games and they’re trolling.’ Which is it?” I inquired.
“What they’re trying to have fun with, trying to make light of, is to point out the absurdity of the Democrats’ position,” answered Johnson.
So we don’t know if or when Vought will drop the anvil on federal workers. But one senator who caucuses with the Democrats and voted for the GOP plan, signaled his support could wane if Republicans overplay their hand.
“If they start firing thousands of people or clawing back other kinds of programs, I think, it could hurt their chances of getting this resolved,” said Sen. Angus King, I-Maine.’
The Senate has now blocked the House-approved spending package on six separate occasions. The sides are having casual conversations. But nothing has happened.
It’s as though Congress is on a merry-go-round to nowhere, just going around and around. Everyone’s getting dizzy. And just wants to dismount.
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