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As the GOP and Democratic Party vie for control of the House chamber during the 2026 midterm election cycle, The Cook Political Report has shifted five districts toward Democrats, and one toward Republicans.
The analysis shifts two districts in Ohio in the Democrats’ favor.
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, represented by incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, has been shifted from toss-up to lean Democrat, according to the report. The district was redrawn last year, “turning it into a district that would have voted for Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024,” according to the report.
The Buckeye State’s 13th Congressional District, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes is seeking re-election, has been switched from lean Democrat to likely Democrat, according to the election analysis.
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“In the redistricting deal negotiated by Ohio Republicans and Democrats last year, Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes was a clear winner. Her current Akron-based district, which narrowly voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, was redrawn to shift three points to the left,” according to The Cook Political Report.
New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, represented by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, has been shifted from lean Democrat to likely Democrat, according to the report. Pou is a member of the left-wing Congressional Progressive Caucus.
The Cook Political Report noted that 2025 Garden State gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat who won the race, won the “district by nearly 20 points” last year after President Donald Trump “carried it by 1.5 points” in 2024.
“Although Pou won’t be able to replicate Sherrill’s landslide victory, it’s hard not to see her as the obvious favorite after the district snapped back to Democrats in 2025 — and as an unsettled primary has kept Republicans from turning their full attention to the general election,” the report states.
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The Cook Political Report has shifted Florida’s 27th Congressional District from solid Republican to likely Republican.
Trump has endorsed incumbent GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents that district in the Sunshine State, for re-election.
The analysis shifted Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, represented by GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan, from lean Republican to toss up, saying that his “stock trades have dogged him all cycle, giving Democrats a potent line of attack in a district that has been trending Republicans’ way but is very much in play this cycle.”
In statement provided to Fox News Digital on Wednesday, Bresnahan campaign spokesman Chris Pack said, “We’re not focused on Washington, D.C. political race handicappers whose business model depends on creating the perception of a close race to drive paid subscriptions.”
“The reality on the ground in Northeastern Pennsylvania tells a very different story,” Pack said. “Rob continues to rapidly consolidate labor union support and post strong fundraising numbers, while Mayor Cognetti is defined by an extreme record that includes supporting mass amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants, eliminating maternity leave for new mothers, and personally calling for disarming the police.”
Trump has endorsed Bresnahan for re-election.
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The report highlighted one bright spot for the GOP: Colorado’s 3rd District has been shifted from likely Republican to solid Republican.
Trump endorsed incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd, then withdrew the endorsement, then endorsed Hurd again.
“We’re shifting this district from Likely Republican to Solid Republican for now, though if either Democratic candidate picks up momentum it could move back onto the board later this cycle,” The Cook Political Report analysis stated.
Trump is facing underwater job approval polling, which could potentially serve as a drag for the Republican Party during the elections this year.
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